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EU GDP growth is revised up to 1.0% in 2023 (from 0.8%) and 1.7% in 2024 (from 1.6%), virtually closing the gap with potential output by the end of the forecast horizon (see Special Issue I.4.1). Upward revisions for the euro area are of a similar magnitude, with GDP growth now expected at 1.1% and 1.6% in 2023 and 2024 respectively. Inflation also surprised again to the upside, and it is now expected at 5.8% in 2023 and 2.8% in 2024 in the euro area, respectively 0.2% and 0.3% higher than in winter.
At the cut-off date of this forecast, wholesale gas prices were projected to be 25% and 13% lower in 2023 and 2024 respectively, compared to markets’ expectations at the time of the previous Commission forecast. Oil prices were also expected to be 10% lower, compared to early February, in both 2023 and 2024.
Employment growth is still forecast at 0.5% in the EU this year. In 2024, employment is set to keep growing moderately (0.4%), implying a less job-rich growth than in 2022. The unemployment rate is expected to remain close to its historical low, at 6.2%, in the EU in 2023, before edging down to 6.1% in 2024.